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亞洲降息潮還將持續(xù)多久
Asian central bank watchers are having
a tough time deciding where to look.
那些關注亞洲央行的人們，眼下很難決定到底該關注哪一家。
Yesterday, South Korea became the latest to surprise the market with a rate cut,
following in the footsteps of Thailand, China and India — all of which have
loosened policy unexpectedly in the past two weeks alone. Indonesia’s February
move to lower borrowing costs is also still fresh in the mind.
昨天，韓國成為繼泰國、中國和印度之后，最新一個宣布降息令市場震動的國家。在過去短短兩周內(nèi)，上述三國都出人意料地推出了寬松政策。而此前印尼于2月份的降息仍歷歷在目。
There are some common threads that help explain Asia’s easing path — such as
falling inflation, stuttering growth and fluctuations in global currency
markets. But country-specific issues are also playing their part.
一些常見原因能夠解釋亞洲的寬松政策路線——包括通脹率下跌、增長遇阻以及全球貨幣市場的波動。不過，各國也面臨各自的具體問題。
“There are some concerns about growth and exchange rate competitiveness”, said
Krystal Tan at Capital Economics. “Now that inflation is low, it’s given policy
makers an opportunity to act.”
凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的Krystal
Tan表示：“存在著一些對增長和匯率競爭力的擔憂。既然通脹現(xiàn)在這么低，政策制定者就有了行動的機會?！?br>
For South Korea, the tumbling yen has prompted questions about export costs,
while domestic growth has been disappointing. This week’s cut takes benchmark
rates down to 1.75 per cent, a record low for Asia’s fourth-largest economy.
對韓國來說，在國內(nèi)增長令人失望之際，日元暴跌引發(fā)了有關韓國出口成本的問題。本周韓國將基準利率降至1.75%，對這個亞洲第四大經(jīng)濟體來說，這是個創(chuàng)紀錄的低點。
Thailand, too, is worried about growth, with exports and private consumption
both weaker than expected at the start of the year. That the baht has held up
better than some other Asian currencies against the rising dollar may also have
played into the central bank’s thinking.
由于年初出口和私人消費雙雙低于預期，泰國也同樣擔心增長的問題。相對于不斷走強的美元，泰銖的表現(xiàn)比部分其他亞洲貨幣要堅挺一些，這可能也是泰國央行考慮的因素之一。
For India, falling inflation has presented an opportunity to give the economy a
helping hand, as the Modi-led government looks to get the country back on track
as quickly as possible.
對印度來說，在莫迪(Modi)領導的政府尋求令該國盡快重返正軌之際，不斷下跌的通脹為刺激經(jīng)濟創(chuàng)造了機遇。
In contrast, Chinese policy makers have been growing nervous about the prospect
of outright deflation, with a contraction in producer prices now entering its
third year. Growth is stalling, the housing market is still in a funk and the
renminbi, on a trade-weighted basis at least, is at a record high. Looser policy
may also be designed to balance tighter liquidity caused by accelerating capital
outflows.
相比之下，中國政策制定者則是出于對全面通縮前景的日益擔憂——中國生產(chǎn)者價格已開啟了第三個下滑之年。增長陷入停滯，樓市仍然低迷，人民幣匯率則處于前所未有的高點——至少從貿(mào)易加權的角度來說是如此。除上述因素以外，更寬松的政策也可能意在平衡資金外流加速導致的流動性緊張。
Economists expect more cuts from some countries — most likely India and China —
while others are tipped to stay put.
經(jīng)濟學家預計，部分國家（最有可能的是印度和中國）將采取更多降息舉措，而其他國家則應該會維持原狀。
The Philippines, where growth has remained strong, will have one eye on its high
rate of credit growth, while recent currency weakness in oil-exporting Malaysia
makes lower rates a less attractive option, even as the economy slows.
增長保持強勁的菲律賓將會密切關注其信貸的高速增長。對于石油出口國馬來西亞來說，即便經(jīng)濟放緩，該國貨幣近期的疲軟也降低了降息的吸引力。
With rates now at record lows and household debt levels already high in both
South Korea and Thailand, further moves are not expected there either.
至于韓國和泰國，由于利率已經(jīng)處于創(chuàng)紀錄低點，居民債務水平也已經(jīng)很高，預計這兩國也不會進一步降息。
“Unless recession risk escalates, we don’t see a clear path for another rate
cut,” said Citibank economists following the Bank of Thailand’s move this week.
在泰國央行(Bank of
Thailand)本周降息之后，花旗銀行(Citibank)經(jīng)濟學家曾表示：“除非衰退風險加劇，否則我們看不到（泰國）進一步降息的明確信號?！?br>
Policy makers across the region will also be mindful of what happened in the
spring of 2013, when Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve,
first used the word “tapering”. This signal that quantitative easing had peaked
prompted rapid capital flight from emerging markets, with India and Indonesia
both forced into emergency rates rises to steady their currencies.
亞洲政策制定者還將銘記2013年春季發(fā)生的事。當時，時任美聯(lián)儲(Fed)主席的本?伯南克(Ben
Bernanke)首次使用了“逐步縮減QE規(guī)模”(tapering)一詞。這一量化寬松見頂?shù)男盘栐鴮е沦Y本迅速逃離新興市場，印度和印尼兩國都曾被迫因此緊急提升利率，以穩(wěn)定本國貨幣的匯率。
希尼爾翻譯公司
2015-03-04
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